Deeper · 06.A
The fragile runway.
A lead-gen business that doesn't graduate to brand and ownership eventually loses to whoever buys more SEO.
01
Where the fragility comes from
Three risks:
- Algorithm risk. Google updates can wipe a query overnight.
- Auction risk. A well-funded competitor enters and bids you out of paid traffic.
- Disintermediation risk. Your provider learns to take the lead direct; you stop being needed.
Lead gen alone is renting attention from Google and renting supply from the providers. Renting is not a moat.
02
What lead gen does well
It generates the cash that funds the move to stage two. It teaches which verticals work without a major capital outlay. It builds the provider relationships that become acquisition targets in stage three. It is the right starting move. It is just not the ending move.